5 signs that it's a good time to sell

Why desperate homeowners could find relief this year

Traditionally, most homes have sold during the spring months. In the current volatile housing market, the time of year is not the most reliable predictor of the best time to sell.

Homes certainly show better in spring than they do on a dark and dreary winter day. Lately, however, weather patterns are hard to predict.

The weather has some effect on home sales. It can slow things down if incessant rain keeps sellers from being able to prepare their homes for sale. However, a bigger influence on the housing market is the overall economic situation and its impact on buyers' psyche.

Normally, the home-sale market ramps up in March or April and stays busy until the beginning of July when the market tends to slow down for the summer. The 2011 home sales went counter to this. The market was active at the beginning of the year, but stalled in April. If you waited until spring to sell last year, you would have missed the best selling opportunity of the first half of 2011.

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The early slowdown was partially due to the expiration of the homebuyer stimulus package. The homebuyer tax credit program accelerated home purchases creating a mini bubble in 2010 that was followed by a significant slowdown in home sales.

Negative economic news played a big part in the sluggish home sales during most of last year. The stock market was unpredictable, and the earthquake in Japan had repercussions for many industries. Plus, Greece was on the brink of bankruptcy, and the future of the European Union was in doubt.

Bad economic news and massive uncertainty lowers consumer confidence. Buyers need to have jobs, but they also need to feel confident in their future to take on a major purchase like a house.

HOUSE HUNTING TIP: The best time to sell is when consumer confidence is on the upswing; interest rates are low; unemployment is decreasing; the economic news is mild; and there are more buyers in your local market niche than there are sellers. A high-demand, low-inventory market gives sellers an edge.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell in March 2012 to 70.2 (1985=100), down from 71.6 in February, when it was up sharply.

Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, attributed the improvement in consumer confidence in February to less pessimism about current business and employment conditions and more optimism about the short-term outlook for the economy and job prospects despite a rise in gas prices. Franco said the moderate decline seen in March was "due solely to a less favorable short-term outlook."

Interest rates are currently at historic lows and are expected to stay low for the rest of the year. Even with low rates, buyers have had difficulty qualifying due to rigid mortgage approval underwriting.

Capital Economics, an analytics firm, expects the housing crisis to end this year partially due to lenders loosening credit. According to Capital Economics, one indicator of loosening is that banks are now lending 82 percent of loan-to-value (LTV), compared with a low of 74 percent LTV reached in mid-2010. This means qualified buyers need less cash to buy, which should lead to more sales this year, although higher home prices are not expected.

These positive indicators combined with a drop in homes for sale at the end of 2011 and a decrease in unemployment may provide an opportunity for sellers in spring 2012, provided their homes are priced right for the market. A major surprise on the economic front could change the picture.

THE CLOSING: Regardless of the economic indicators, the best time to sell is when the time is right for you.

Consumers may prowl for homes in 2012: Fannie Mae

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The world will only have to wait a few more weeks to find out whether Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will allow principal reductions on mortgages they back.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency will decide this month whether Fannie and Freddie should allow write downs on the balances of borrowers who owe more than their homes are worth, said Ed DeMarco, acting director for the agency.

Fannie and Freddie have been at the center of a tug-of-war over fixing the housing market. They have long resisted calls to write down the balances on the loans in their portfolio, saying it would be too costly for taxpayers.

But the pressure has been building, especially in the wake of the $26 billion mortgage settlement that will reduce principal for 1 million borrowers whose loans aren't backed by Fannie and Freddie.

The agency, which regulates the government-controlled companies, had decided against allowing principal reduction after internal studies showed that alternatives such as adjusting monthly payments or forbearing principal were more cost effective.

DeMarco has said his agency is charged with protecting taxpayers' interests, and principal reduction would amount to an expensive taxpayer bailout of troubled homeowners.

Since then, however, the Obama administration has sweetened the pot. It tripled the incentives it will pay to Fannie and Freddie for reducing principal under the Home Affordable Mortgage Program, or HAMP. This has prompted the agency and the companies to redo their analysis.

But will it even matter if Fannie and Freddie start allowing principal reduction?

Together, Fannie and Freddie have about 3 million loans that are seriously underwater, according to company filings. But three-quarters of these homeowners are current on their payments and may not qualify.

"These borrowers are demonstrating a continued willingness to meet their mortgage obligations," said DeMarco in a recent speech. "This should be recognized and encouraged, not dampened with incentives for people to not continue paying."

In the end, the number of eligible underwater Fannie and Freddie loans could range from a few hundred thousand up to 750,000, according to estimates. That's not that much considering there are 11 million underwater borrowers in the U.S., just over a quarter of whom are behind in their payments.

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Capital Economics expects the housing crisis to end this year, according to a report released Tuesday. One of the reasons: loosening credit.

The analytics firm notes the average credit score required to attain a mortgage loan is 700. While this is higher than scores required prior to the crisis, it is constant with requirements one year ago.

Additionally, a Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey found credit requirements in the fourth quarter were consistent with the past three quarters.

However, other market indicators point not just to a stabilization of mortgage lending standards, but also a loosening of credit availability.

Banks are now lending amounts up to 3.5 times borrower earnings. This is up from a low during the crisis of 3.2 times borrower earnings.

Banks are also loosening loan-to-value ratios (LTV), which Capital Economics denotes “the clearest sign yet of an improvement in mortgage credit conditions.”

In contrast to a low of 74 percent reached in mid-2010, banks are now lending at 82 percent LTV.

While credit conditions may have loosened slightly, some potential homebuyers are still struggling with credit requirements. In fact, Capital Economics points out that in November 8 percent of contract cancellations were the result of a potential buyer not qualifying for a loan.

Additionally, Capital Economics says “any improvement in credit conditions won’t be significant enough to generate actual house price gains,” and potential ramifications from the euro-zone pose a threat to future credit availability.